Educated Finger in the Wind

We all know that the popular vote doesn't mean squat in the US Presidential election. If you don't know why, ask Al Gore.

That's why when most polls ask people who they would vote for, and one guy is leading by 8 points or whatever, it doesn't tell you a whole lot. The polls need to say something about electoral college totals to signify who will actually win.

The problem with most electoral polls, though, is that they can be off, either through bias or poor methodology. FiveThirtyEight works to create a more accurate picture by examining a wide variety of electoral polls, weighting them based on their merits, and thereby coming up with a more robust set of numbers. Scroll down the right side of the page to see the state-by-state poll results; there are 35 separate polls considered for battleground state Ohio.

As of 10/6/2008, this is how 538 calls it.

However, after the last two elections, I'm taking nothing for granted.